Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1057

   Mesoscale Discussion 1057
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0615 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards
   Plateau

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345...

   Valid 282315Z - 290045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 345
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A severe threat of large hail and severe wind gusts will
   continue across portions of the Lower Trans-Pecos and Edwards
   Plateau

   DISCUSSION...A right moving supercell, along with another deepening
   updraft on its western flank, will continue to progress eastward
   into Crockett and Val Verde Counties over the next hour. The
   downstream convective environment will remain favorable for updraft
   organization, with deep effective shear around 45-55 kt, and steep
   mid level lapse rates contributing to around 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE.
   Large hail around 1.5 to 2.5" will remain the main severe threat
   with these thunderstorms. However, severe wind gust potential may
   increase through the evening hours as a deeper cold pool develops
   with merging updrafts.

   ..Barnes.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   30010201 30150211 30780225 31100225 31150144 30840081
               30700007 30280014 29900042 29820081 29800110 29850172
               30060210 30010201