Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1055

   Mesoscale Discussion 1055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0841 PM CDT Tue Jun 09 2026

   Areas affected...eastern Dakotas and western Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely 

   Valid 100141Z - 100315Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe potential to extend downstream of WW294.
   Thunderstorms with potential for damaging wind and tornadoes will
   move eastward through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity is increasing along the front in
   the central Dakotas. This activity has been producing wind gusts
   60-70+ mph. The mode is becoming linearly forced along the front,
   given deep layer shear vectors parallel to the front. This will
   likely remain the case through the evening, with surface objective
   analysis and recent 00z soundings from ABR and BIS indicating steep
   low level lapse rates and large MLCAPE around 2500-3000 J/kg amid
   temperatures in the 80s-90s F.

   The low-level jet is expected to increase through the evening as the
   surface low across North Dakota deepens and shifts northward into
   Canada. This will support an increase in south to southeasterly
   low-level flow which will enlarge hodographs and enhance low-level
   SRH. This will promote potential for line embedded vorticies and a
   couple of tornadoes into the evening/overnight.

   A new watch will likely be needed downstream of WW294 soon.

   ..Thornton/Smith.. 06/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47839956 48849912 49039747 48749632 47489534 44679549
               44509652 44449765 44609853 47839956 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN