Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1055

   Mesoscale Discussion 1055
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0545 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...Central High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 282245Z - 282345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe risk is increasing across portions of eastern CO
   into western KS. Large hail is the primary threat and a severe
   thunderstorm watch is being considered.

   DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer lapse rates have steepened significantly
   across the central High Plains late this afternoon. Southeasterly
   low-level flow has forced mid 50s surface dew points into eastern CO
   and inhibition is now negligible. Scattered thunderstorms are now
   evolving along the northern edge of an instability axis
   characterized by 1500 J/kg MLCAPE within a modestly sheared
   environment. Hail is likely occurring with the most robust updrafts
   and this activity should spread southeast into portion of western
   KS, just north of ww0346. Some consideration is being given to a new
   severe thunderstorm watch across this region.

   ..Darrow/Smith.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   39840296 39000069 37890110 38760375 39840296