Mesoscale Discussion 1048
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024
Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the
Oklahoma Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...far eastern
Colorado...far western Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 281856Z - 282030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
central and southern High Plains. Large hail and severe gusts are
the main threat, and a couple of hail stones may exceed 2 inches in
diameter. A WW issuance may be needed soon to address the increasing
severe threat.
DISCUSSION...With strong diurnal heating, temperatures are rising
into the 80s F, amid mid 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. With 8+ C/km
mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE is
exceeding 2000 J/kg. Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery
shows convective initiation underway over extreme northeast NM.
However, 18Z mesoanalysis shows MLCINH is still present over the
warm sector. Nonetheless, continued surface heating should erode the
cap through the afternoon, supporting the development of additional
storms. 18Z mesoanalysis depicts modestly curved but elongated
hodographs, suggesting splitting supercells as the initial mode of
convection. The supercells will be accompanied by a severe wind and
hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail or a
tornado also cannot be ruled out. With time, storms may merge into
clusters (perhaps one or more MCSs). If an MCS can develop, severe
gusts would then become the main severe hazard.
Given the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms, a WW
issuance will be needed soon.
..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ...
LAT...LON 34810302 36430355 37260354 38400313 38630187 38200119
37340032 36130013 34820024 34810302