US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1048

   Mesoscale Discussion 1048
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast New Mexico into the
   Oklahoma Panhandle...northern TX Panhandle...far eastern
   Colorado...far western Kansas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281856Z - 282030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of the
   central and southern High Plains. Large hail and severe gusts are
   the main threat, and a couple of hail stones may exceed 2 inches in
   diameter. A WW issuance may be needed soon to address the increasing
   severe threat.

   DISCUSSION...With strong diurnal heating, temperatures are rising
   into the 80s F, amid mid 50s to lower 60s F dewpoints. With 8+ C/km
   mid-level lapse rates overspreading this airmass, MLCAPE is
   exceeding 2000 J/kg. Visible satellite and MRMS mosaic radar imagery
   shows convective initiation underway over extreme northeast NM.
   However, 18Z mesoanalysis shows MLCINH is still present over the
   warm sector. Nonetheless, continued surface heating should erode the
   cap through the afternoon, supporting the development of additional
   storms. 18Z mesoanalysis depicts modestly curved but elongated
   hodographs, suggesting splitting supercells as the initial mode of
   convection. The supercells will be accompanied by a severe wind and
   hail threat. An instance or two of 2+ inch diameter hail or a
   tornado also cannot be ruled out. With time, storms may merge into
   clusters (perhaps one or more MCSs). If an MCS can develop, severe
   gusts would then become the main severe hazard.

   Given the increasing potential for severe thunderstorms, a WW
   issuance will be needed soon.

   ..Squitieri/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34810302 36430355 37260354 38400313 38630187 38200119
               37340032 36130013 34820024 34810302 

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