Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1043

   Mesoscale Discussion 1043
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1231 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...coastal NC and the Outer Banks

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 281731Z - 281930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may produce gusty winds and small
   hail are possible through the afternoon/early evening.

   DISCUSSION...Deepening cumulus is noted in visible satellite early
   this afternoon along the North Carolina coast, and storms will
   likely develop in the next couple of hours. This activity is
   developing along a weak surface boundary. Strong heating and a very
   moist boundary layer (dewpoints 68-73 F) are contributing to MLCAPE
   around 1500-2000 J/kg. Stronger effective shear will remain north
   and west of the area, but 20-30 kt should be sufficient for
   organized updrafts. Locally strong gusts of 45-60 mph will be
   possible, along with small hail in stronger cells. A watch is not
   expected given the marginal nature of the severe risk and storms
   likely to move quickly offshore.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...

   LAT...LON   34127874 35717592 35727538 35157524 34387627 33647732
               33457827 33587872 34127874