Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1039

   Mesoscale Discussion 1039
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1049 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...central into southeast TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 281549Z - 281745Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms may develop along residual outflow across central
   into southeast Texas from late morning into the afternoon.
   Severe/damaging gusts and large hail will be possible. A watch will
   likely be needed soon.

   DISCUSSION...Convection is starting to develop near/just behind
   outflow across central Texas. While outflow may continue to sag
   southward, a very moist airmass remains in place with surface
   dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s F. Strong heating and midlevel lapse
   rates around 8-8.5 C/km within this moist environment is resulting
   in strong destabilization (MLCAPE around 2000-4000 J/kg). Any storms
   that develop within this airmass will likely become severe, posing a
   risk of large hail and severe gusts. If clustering occurs, a line of
   severe storms may develop southeast from the Edwards Plateau toward
   the Upper Texas Coast later this afternoon. A watch will likely be
   needed for portions of the region soon.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   30519909 30769888 31059830 31229733 31109402 30839358
               30209367 29939375 29609436 29359492 29309566 29319726
               29359789 29439833 29509868 29629891 29959906 30189910
               30519909