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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1032

Mesoscale Discussion 1032
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1032
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0325 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

   Areas affected...North TX

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339...

   Valid 280825Z - 281000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 339

   SUMMARY...An increasing threat for severe wind gusts and large hail
   is expected farther south in north Texas through sunrise. An
   additional severe thunderstorm watch or extension of ongoing WW 339
   is likely.

   DISCUSSION...The deepest/most intense thunderstorms within WW 339
   were centered over Clay County, TX. Recent radar evolution suggest
   this activity is beginning to pivot southeastward towards the large
   CAPE reservoir emanating north from central TX. While CAM guidance
   has been slow with the evolution of early morning convection, the
   07Z HRRR run finally appears more consistent with the 00Z NSSL-MPAS
   runs in indicating a substantial linear cluster accelerating
   southeastward across parts of the Metroplex. With deepening
   convective cores to its east, within the downstream warm-advection
   flank and the FWS VWP sampling the strongest low-level jet of the
   night (around 40 kts), this scenario appears increasingly plausible.
   Damaging gusts could reach 65-80 mph as the cold pool matures
   towards sunrise.

   ..Grams.. 05/28/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   34059777 34059737 33599639 32699570 32299571 32039600
               31949643 32029698 32309740 32929800 33269838 33829850
               34029844 34059777 

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