Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1025

   Mesoscale Discussion 1025
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0640 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...Southeast Pennsylvania into the Delmarva region

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333...335...

   Valid 272340Z - 280145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 333, 335
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues primarily for the southern
   half of WW 333, especially downstream of a cluster of organized
   convection moving across the Delmarva region.

   DISCUSSION...Gradual and modest air mass recovery has been ongoing
   over the past couple of hours across central to eastern PA and NJ in
   the wake of earlier convection. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates
   suggest MLCAPE has increased to around 1000 J/kg across eastern
   PA/NJ with strong deep-layer wind shear remaining over the region
   ahead of the approaching upper wave. Thunderstorms that have
   recently developed along a subtle surface confluence axis may see
   intensification to severe limits over the next hour or so before the
   onset of more substantial nocturnal cooling/stabilization. 

   Further south, a cluster of discrete/semi-discrete cells has evolved
   over the Delmarva region. This activity remains well within the
   buoyancy axis where low 70s dewpoints are supporting MLCAPE closer
   to 1500 J/kg. With moisture continuing to increase downstream into
   DE, storm maintenance and/or intensification is expected with a
   continued threat for damaging winds and large hail. A brief tornado
   threat may materialize across the northern Chesapeake Bay area
   within the hour given modest (around 100 m2/s2) 0-1 km SRH just
   ahead of the ongoing storms, but southwesterly winds further
   downstream into DE suggest weaker low-level SRH and lower tornado
   potential.

   ..Moore.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   38567485 38477515 38437571 38437618 38537677 38667723
               38857738 38987743 39217725 39547699 39717682 39987665
               40367679 40617699 41087677 41437562 41127402 40647383
               39967395 39427423 38977453 38837474 38567485