Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1024

   Mesoscale Discussion 1024
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0636 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...North/Central TX through te TX Hill Country

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336...

   Valid 272336Z - 280100Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 336
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Threat for very large hail up to 3" in diameter and severe
   gusts around 60-70 mph will continue from north/central Texas into
   the Texas Hill Country.

   DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms continue to develop
   within the very warm and moist airmass that exists from the TX Hill
   Country north and eastward across the remainder of the state.
   Large-scale ascent across the region remains fairly modest, with the
   low-level moisture convergence providing the primary mechanism for
   convective initiation. In addition to robust buoyancy, strong
   vertical shear exists over the region as well, with long hodographs
   favoring splitting storms. The overall environment supports the
   persistence of both left and right splits, with storm interactions
   dictating updraft survival. This is particularly true across central
   TX, where greater storm coverage exists, likely a result of subtle
   large-scale ascent aiding overall convective initiation and
   maturation. 

   The very strong buoyancy and shear will continue to support the
   potential for very large hail up to 3" in diameter across the entire
   region. Steep low-level lapse rates will also support the
   development of strong downbursts capable of producing severe gusts
   around 60-70 mph. Weak surface winds are expected to keep the
   tornado threat low, although non-zero given the supercellular storm
   mode.

   ..Mosier.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   31229980 33229773 33209526 31779580 28519940 29390112
               31229980