Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1022

   Mesoscale Discussion 1022
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0442 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...Southern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 272142Z - 272345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered to address
   convection developing to the west of WW 334 into southern and
   southwest Alabama.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, scattered thunderstorms have
   developed along a residual outflow boundary across south-central to
   southwest AL with bubbling cumulus noted in GOES visible imagery
   further west into southeast MS. This convection is developing just
   to the west of WW 334, but should mature in a similar
   thermodynamic/kinematic environment characterized by roughly 3000
   J/kg MLCAPE and 35-45 knots of effective bulk wind shear. Storm
   motions and deep-layer shear vectors oriented along the boundary
   should favor upscale growth into clusters with time (with an
   increasing wind threat), but a large hail threat should manifest in
   the short term (next 1-2 hours).

   ..Moore/Smith.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   32668651 32698575 32498544 31998540 31508557 31188587
               30918639 30818747 30818811 30858852 30908879 30988898
               31158908 31448901 31668859 31968807 32388734 32668651