Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1021

   Mesoscale Discussion 1021
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina and eastern
   Virginia

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 335...

   Valid 272049Z - 272215Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 335 continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 335.
   Large hail and damaging gusts remain a concern. The best chance for
   tornadoes would be closer to the coastline ahead of ongoing storms.

   DISCUSSION...Multicells and transient supercells persist across
   northeastern NC and are moving northeast toward southeast VA. At the
   moment, these are the most robust storms across eastern NC/VA,
   though an increase in thunderstorm coverage is possible later this
   afternoon. Given widespread 1000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of
   effective bulk shear, most thunderstorms should maintain a
   multicellular or transient supercell mode through the afternoon.
   While a tornado or two cannot be ruled out anywhere across Tornado
   Watch 335 in eastern NC/VA, the best chance for tornadoes appears to
   be far southeast VA/northeast NC closer to the coast, where backed
   low-level winds are contributing to slightly larger low-level
   hodographs.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...

   LAT...LON   35287618 35107687 35097749 35227810 35597877 38577787
               39197739 39497704 39557671 39477624 38787584 37327586
               35967591 35287618