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Mesoscale Discussion 1018 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1018 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Areas affected...portions of central TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 271948Z - 272115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms producing large hail and strong gusts will be possible into early evening. DISCUSSION...Strong heating to near 100 F has allowed for some mixing of stronger boundary-layer dewpoints over portions of the area. However, dewpoints generally still remain in the 60s F. Very steep midlevel lapse rates also are in place. This is supporting moderate to strong instability within a strongly sheared environment. Furthermore, visible satellite imagery shows deepening/vertically developing cumulus across the MCD area. Forecast soundings depict deep mixing with inverted-v low-level thermodynamic profiles. Given a dry EML, this may support sporadic severe gusts. Furthermore, elongated/straight hodographs suggest large hail will be possible. Convection has already develop across northeast Mexico and will approach the Rio Grande in the next few hours. This convection also will pose a severe risk if it is maintained across the Rio Grande into TX. Some uncertainty exists regarding coverage and eastward extent of severe potential, but at least a narrow corridor of large hail and strong gust potential is expected. A watch will likely be needed in the next hour or so. ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29420147 30000097 30770016 31349928 31179844 30769817 30259830 28839949 27930040 27900059 28200077 29420147 |
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