Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1017

   Mesoscale Discussion 1017
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0204 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of north/central TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271904Z - 272130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop by late
   afternoon. Very large hail in the 2.75 to 4 inch diameter range will
   be possible along with strong gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch
   will likely be needed in the next couple of hours.

   DISCUSSION...A roughly west to east oriented surface boundary is
   noted across north Texas this afternoon. To the south of this
   boundary, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are prevalent.
   Strong heating into the 90s F of this very moist boundary-layer and
   very steep midlevel lapse rates is supporting strong to extreme
   destabilization (MLCAPE 2500-4000 J/kg). Visible satellite has shown
   an increase in coverage of cumulus over the region, with areas of
   vertical development along the boundary and within a band of
   low-level confluence to the southwest of the Metroplex. While
   large-scale ascent will remain somewhat modest, increasing
   thunderstorm activity across northeast Mexico and increase in
   midlevel moisture impinging on south-central TX per latest water
   vapor imagery suggests some modest ascent is increasing over the
   region.

   Once convection deepens sufficiently, updrafts will likely grow
   vigorously given large instability and very steep midlevel lapse
   rates. Vertical shear will support supercells, with long/straight
   hodographs within this thermodynamic environment favoring very large
   hail. Locally strong to severe gusts may also accompany the
   strongest cells. Timing and coverage of severe storms is still a bit
   uncertain, but expected storms to develop by around 4pm CDT. While
   coverage may be sparse, potential for significant hail will likely
   require a watch issuance in the next couple of hours.

   ..Leitman/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD...OUN...EWX...

   LAT...LON   33489744 32849599 32299526 31759521 31299546 30879623
               30669674 30619733 30709805 30949835 31749866 32459881
               32939882 33299863 33539836 33489744