Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1015

   Mesoscale Discussion 1015
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0159 PM CDT Sun Jun 07 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 071859Z - 072100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms may pose a localized risk
   for strong/damaging wind gusts and perhaps small hail this
   afternoon. Watch issuance is not expected.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis depicts a weak cold front in
   place across portions of Virginia, extending from south of
   Roanoke/Blacksburg into southern Delaware/Maryland. Temperatures
   have warmed into the low-90s ahead of this front, with 60s F
   dewpoints noted across southeastern Virginia and northeastern North
   Carolina. Amid continued insolation, expectation is for widely
   scattered thunderstorms to develop over the next couple of hours
   along/near this front across portions of central/southeastern
   Virginia, with storms gradually evolving southeastward through the
   early evening. 500 to locally 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating and
   around 25-30 kts of effective shear along the southern periphery of
   a mid-level trough may promote occasional strong thunderstorms, with
   isolated damaging wind gusts possible. Warm mid-level temperatures
   will temper overall convective intensity, but an instance or two of
   small hail could also accompany the strongest updrafts. Watch
   issuance is not expected owing to the limited coverage/magnitude of
   the severe threat.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...

   LAT...LON   36377580 36277612 36247691 36287734 36357769 36547819
               36707854 36887880 37087908 37467941 37857947 38347939
               38487907 38427845 38227760 38097690 37967599 37867534
               37727542 37317567 36987586 36747583 36497571 36377580 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH