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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1014

Mesoscale Discussion 1014
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1014
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1241 PM CDT Mon May 27 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeast Alabama into central and
   southern Georgia...southern South Carolina

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 271741Z - 271915Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat will gradually increase into the
   afternoon. Large hail and damaging gusts are both a concern. A WW
   issuance will be needed in the next hour or so to address the severe

   DISCUSSION...In addition to an ongoing supercell over western
   Georgia, thunderstorm development and intensification is underway
   over eastern AL. These storms are forming within an environment
   characterized by 80+ F surface temperatures and low to mid 70s F
   dewpoints, yielding 2000+ J/kg MLCAPE. Strong mid-level westerly
   flow is overspreading the region, contributing to 50+ kts of
   effective bulk shear. As such, multicell clusters and transient
   supercells should develop through the afternoon. Given steep low and
   mid-level lapse rates, these storms will be accompanied by severe
   hail and wind. A WW issuance will be needed in the next hour or so
   to address the impending severe threat.

   ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31478808 32828525 33858301 33358046 32908022 32188041
               31848099 31378402 31108540 30928624 30988755 31478808 

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