Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 101

   Mesoscale Discussion 0101
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0306 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

   Areas affected...far east-central MO into southwest/west-central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 192106Z - 192230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms may develop over the next hour,
   though confidence in development is low. If a storm can develop,
   large hail and possibly a tornado could occur. Monitoring convective
   trends for possible watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Agitated cumulus has been noted in visible satellite
   imagery this afternoon across east-central MO toward the MS River.
   This activity is occurring ahead of a surging surface dryline within
   the modestly moist warm sector. Large-scale ascent is increasing
   across the region, and low to midlevel flow is likewise becoming
   more favorable for organized convection. However, the thermodynamic
   environment remains lackluster given shallow/modest boundary layer
   moisture with dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s F.
   However, if a storm can develop, steep midlevel lapse rates and
   supercell wind profiles will support large hail. As the surface low
   over northeast MO continues eastward, low-level SRH also will
   increase.  If a storm can develop and mature, at least some tornado
   risk could accompany this activity.  Given uncertainty, it is
   unclear of a small severe or tornado watch will be needed before any
   developing convection moves east into WW 0010.

   ..Leitman/Mosier.. 02/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...

   LAT...LON   38609045 39148937 39148883 38608862 38308877 37908949
               37809004 37939047 38259064 38439066 38609045 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-130 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN