Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1006

   Mesoscale Discussion 1006
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1037 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Northeast TX into Southwest/South-Central AR

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 270337Z - 270530Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from northeast
   Texas into central Arkansas. Very large hail is the primary risk,
   although a tornado or two is also possible. Isolated coverage may
   preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely.

   DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture convergence is contributing to new
   development near the weak cold front extending across the region.
   The airmass to the south of the front is very moist and buoyant,
   with recent mesoanalysis estimating MLCAPE over 4000 J/kg. Strong
   vertical shear is in place as well, with effective bulk shear from
   50 to 60 kt. However, significant mid-level dry air is in place,
   which will likely minimize the overall severe coverage. Even so, the
   storms that do develop could be quite strong and may even be able to
   attain supercellular characteristics. Very large hail is likely the
   primary risk, but strong low-level instability (i.e. 0-3 km MLCAPE
   over 200 J/kg) and low-level wind profiles that veer with height
   suggest some tornado potential as well. Isolated coverage may
   preclude the need for a watch but trends will be monitored closely.

   ..Mosier/Smith.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33419510 34519276 33849199 32569373 32149506 32549545
               33419510