Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1005

   Mesoscale Discussion 1005
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1035 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

   Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into northern MO

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 270335Z - 270500Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may persist into the early
   overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms have
   persisted this evening across northern MO late this evening, with
   the strongest cell having produced 2-inch diameter hail in Mercer
   and Sullivan Counties. Additional storms have developed into
   northwest MO, and also southwest of the Kansas City metro. While
   this region is post-frontal, lingering low-level moisture beneath
   steep lapse rates aloft is supporting MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg.
   Meanwhile, modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear is supporting
   some storm organization, including occasional supercell structures. 

   Ongoing convection is likely being aided by a shortwave trough
   moving through broader cyclonic flow aloft, and additional
   development of a severe storm or two will be possible into the early
   overnight hours, with large hail as the primary hazard (though
   locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out). Eventual weakening is
   expected overnight due to weakening instability and departure of
   stronger large-scale ascent.

   ..Dean/Smith.. 05/27/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39179523 40509443 40429277 39859217 39069224 38739279
               38309426 38399524 39179523