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Mesoscale Discussion 1005 | |
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Mesoscale Discussion 1005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1035 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 Areas affected...Extreme northeast KS into northern MO Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 270335Z - 270500Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail threat may persist into the early overnight hours. DISCUSSION...Isolated strong to occasionally severe storms have persisted this evening across northern MO late this evening, with the strongest cell having produced 2-inch diameter hail in Mercer and Sullivan Counties. Additional storms have developed into northwest MO, and also southwest of the Kansas City metro. While this region is post-frontal, lingering low-level moisture beneath steep lapse rates aloft is supporting MUCAPE in excess of 1500 J/kg. Meanwhile, modest but sufficient deep-layer flow/shear is supporting some storm organization, including occasional supercell structures. Ongoing convection is likely being aided by a shortwave trough moving through broader cyclonic flow aloft, and additional development of a severe storm or two will be possible into the early overnight hours, with large hail as the primary hazard (though locally strong gusts cannot be ruled out). Eventual weakening is expected overnight due to weakening instability and departure of stronger large-scale ascent. ..Dean/Smith.. 05/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39179523 40509443 40429277 39859217 39069224 38739279 38309426 38399524 39179523 |
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