US Mesoscale Discussions

SPC MD 712


Mesoscale Discussion 0712
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0551 PM CDT Wed May 08 2024

Areas affected...Middle Tennessee...south-central Kentucky

Concerning...Tornado Watch 206...

Valid 082251Z - 090045Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 206 continues.

SUMMARY...Several supercells are ongoing across parts of the
Mid-South region (south-central Kentucky and Middle Tennessee). 
Storms will continue over the next couple of hours, with large hail
and damaging winds expected, along with a few tornadoes.

DISCUSSION...Scattered severe/supercell storms continue across
portions of the southern half of Kentucky at this time, and
southward into Middle Tennessee.  Several of these storms are
exhibiting sustained rotation, and large hail signatures as they
move eastward across WW 206.  One storm in particular, moving across
Maury County at this time, appears to be potentially tornadic, per
KOHX WSR-88D storm-relative velocity (roughly 65 kt VROT) and
correlation coefficient data from the most recent volume scan.

Instability diminishes with eastward extent into eastern portions of
Kentucky, but expect some severe risk to spill east of the existing
WW.  Farther south, into eastern Tennessee, greater instability
suggests greater risk for eventual eastward expansion of severe
potential.  At this time, expectations are that risk into eastern
Kentucky may remain sufficiently muted to preclude a downstream WW
in the short term.  Later, with WW 206 set to expire at 09/03Z, a
new WW may be needed, and could include eastern Tennessee counties
east of the current watch, and potentially a few counties into
southern portions of eastern Kentucky.

..Goss.. 05/08/2024

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   35178734 35438782 35998777 36978679 37388677 37718487
            37228430 36798431 36028478 35458557 35178734 

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