MD 1893 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO…FAR SOUTHEAST WYOMING…AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 1893
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Tue Aug 13 2024
Areas affected...Portions of east-central Colorado...far southeast
Wyoming...and the Nebraska Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 132042Z - 132245Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of
producing severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible this
afternoon. The severe threat should eventually increase farther east
into this evening.
DISCUSSION...Isolated/discrete thunderstorms are evolving
along/immediately east of the Colorado Rockies and northward into
the Nebraska Panhandle this afternoon, as diurnal heating continues
to erode MLCINH along a surface wind shift/lee trough. Over the next
couple hours, a few of these storms may intensify and pose a risk of
isolated severe hail and locally damaging gusts -- aided by around
30 kt of 0-6 km shear (sampled by DEN VWP and latest ACARS
soundings). Overall, weak instability and limited large-scale
forcing should limit the severe threat with these initial
thunderstorms. With time, thunderstorms should increase in coverage
and spread eastward into richer boundary-layer moisture and
associated instability -- which should favor an increasing severe
risk into this evening. A watch is not expected for the initial
thunderstorms developing along/immediately east of the higher
terrain in the near-term, though convective trends will be
monitored.
..Weinman/Mosier.. 08/13/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...PUB...BOU...CYS...
LAT...LON 38650355 38140329 37670323 37460350 37340384 37410430
37930458 38330473 39600525 40120530 40550522 41310468
41810418 42500349 42440298 42150272 41580283 41100325
40260381 39490387 38650355