2024-06-29 17:00:04
1719695364
MD 1476 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 482… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN PA
Mesoscale Discussion 1476 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Areas affected...central/eastern PA Concerning...Tornado Watch 482... Valid 292009Z - 292145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 482 continues. SUMMARY...A risk for damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will continue into early evening across central into eastern PA. DISCUSSION...A line of convection over central PA will continue to track toward the east at around 35-45 mph over the next few hours. This activity has a history or producing sporadic wind damaging across western and central PA this afternoon. The downstream airmass has warmed into the upper 80s amid near-70 F dewpoints. Lapse rates will remain poor, limiting stronger instability, though around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE is expected to spread eastward with time. Effective shear magnitudes around 40 kt, and enlarged, favorably curved low-level hodographs will continue supporting organized convection with a risk of damaging gusts and a couple of tornadoes. If current trends are maintained, an aerial watch extension may be needed across southeastern portions of WFO CTP as convection is expected to near the edge of Tornado Watch 482 by around 22z. The need for a downstream watch into portions of far southeast PA and NJ remains uncertain, but trends will be monitored. ..Leitman.. 06/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...PBZ... LAT...LON 41357721 41277641 40707607 40177612 39747645 39707732 39757894 39987928 40597887 41227783 41357721