The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 230541 SWODY1 SPC AC 230539 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered weak thunderstorm activity is likely today into tonight across the Texas Big Bend region into central Texas. ...Synopsis... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts increasing ascent across northern Mexico into the Southwest/Big Bend region of TX as an upper low off the southern CA coast begins to slowly shift east. At the surface, a cold front continues to push south across the Plains with modest moisture return ongoing along the TX Coastal Plain. Precipitation is expected to slowly increase from the Big Bend region northeastward into the southern Plains/Ozark Plateau through the day as isentropic ascent strengthens across central TX. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated along and north of the cold front as it impinges on a plume of returning moisture. ...Big Bend Region to Central Texas... Moisture return of mid 50s to low 60s dewpoints along and south of the I-10 corridor and into the Big Bend region is expected by evening and should support a swath of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the front across the Edwards Plateau by early evening, spreading east as the front pushes further into the unstable air mass. While a few storms may initially be surface-based, northeastward storm motions will quickly displace any deep convection onto the cool side of the boundary. Wind profiles are expected to strengthen through the day in response to the approaching upper wave, and could support effective shear values on the order of 40 knots. Despite this, a combination of modest buoyancy profiles (lifted indices generally -2 to -3 C), rapid undercutting by the front, and a propensity for storm interactions/upscale growth should largely mitigate the potential for severe convection. A few CAM solutions, notably the 00z HRRR, hint at the potential for upscale growth of a surface-based convective cluster as it propagates eastward along the front with an attendant threat for damaging winds. While plausible given the aforementioned CAPE/shear parameter space, the lack of supporting signal in other CAM solutions and ensemble/calibrated guidance, along with unfavorable phasing with the diurnal cycle, suggest that this is a relatively low probability scenario. ..Moore/Thornton.. 01/23/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 230637 SWODY2 SPC AC 230636 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1236 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not anticipated across the U.S. Saturday through Saturday night. ...Synopsis... The mid-level pattern over the CONUS is forecast to amplify significantly this weekend as initially split flow consolidates behind a departing East Coast upper trough. Several short wave perturbations (over the Southwest, northern Mexico, and southern Canada) will gradually consolidate into larger-scale mid-level troughing across the Rockies and Great Plains by late Saturday night. As upper troughing becomes established, a strong Arctic cold front will rapidly move south with high pressure (1045+ mb) building in its wake. An extensive cold intrusion will occur with significant latitudinal suppression of lee cyclogenesis to far northern Mex and the southern Gulf Coast. This will greatly limit inland moisture return. Still, strong lift in the form of isentropic ascent over top the front will support widespread winter precipitation (some possibly with isolated lightning) over the Plains and south-central US much of Saturday. ...South Texas Coast... As the strong Arctic high pressure building over the southern Plains forces the cold front to surge south, the Arctic air mass will rapidly undercut the a remnant warm sector over parts of Far South TX. Strong isentropic ascent over the shallow surface front will allow for modest elevated destabilization. However, poor mid-level lapse rates (6-6.5 C/km) and the overnight arrival of the more consolidated upper ascent should preclude the development of larger buoyancy. Thus, while a stronger storm is briefly possible along the immediate coast or elevated behind the front, the overall severe risk appears quite limited. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 230831 SWODY3 SPC AC 230830 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast Sunday. ...Synopsis... Intensifying mid-level troughing over the central US will continue to amplify as it moves eastward Sunday. Strong cyclonic flow aloft will overspread portions of the southern US as a second embedded perturbation skirts the central and eastern Gulf Coast before being consolidated into the broader upper trough. Ascent from this shortwave will allow a weak surface low to develop and shift east/northeastward over the Tennessee Valley before moving offshore of the Carolina coast early Monday. Attendant to the low, a strong arctic cold front will sweep eastward across the southern CONUS. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability and some potential for strong to severe storms. ...Gulf Coast... As the surface low moves onshore and deepens ahead of the advancing shortwave early Sunday, inland moisture advection (60s F surface dewpoints) is expected to increase over southeastern LA into southern MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle in the wake of a surface warm front lifting northward. Ongoing elevated convection near the advancing cold front will likely encounter a warming/moistening boundary layer sufficient for some intensification through the day across south-central AL into the FL panhandle and southwestern GA. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft (EBWD of 50-60 kt) will be favorable for some storm organization amidst weak buoyancy (MLCAPE ~ 500 J/kg). A broken band of storms along the cold front may pose a risk for isolated damaging gusts and brief tornado where the boundary layer can destabilize sufficiently inland south of the prominent cold air intrusion/damming and ongoing winter weather. The cold front will then continue offshore overnight with the severe risk diminishing as a much colder air mass envelops the eastern CONUS. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 230955 SWOD48 SPC AC 230953 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026 Valid 261200Z - 311200Z ...DISCUSSION... Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through next week with troughing generally over the East and a building ridge to the West. This will favor continued northwesterly flow aloft and reinforcement of an extensive cold air outbreak and Arctic high pressure over the lower 48. With little to no inland moisture transport expected over the next week, severe weather is unlikely. ..Lyons.. 01/23/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center