The Storm Prediction Center convective weather outlook is part of the National Weather Service (NWS) and the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). Their mission is to provide accurate forecasts and monitor the timing of thunderstorms and severe storms in the United States. The SPC provides convective outlooks on Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 that reflect the overall level of severe weather hazard outlooks through a list of forecast statistics. This data identifies areas at risk of mild thunderstorms and severe thunderstorms. For more information on how to read this map, please see the bottom of this page.
Convective Outlook Day 1
SPC Day 1 Outlook Discussion
ACUS01 KWNS 130526 SWODY1 SPC AC 130525 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms could produce hail and gusty winds this evening into the overnight hours across portions of the southern Plains. ...Southern Plains... Late-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough off the Baja Peninsula. This southern-stream feature is beginning to eject northeast in response to the Great Basin/CA trough digging toward the lower CO River Valley. By early evening, 00z model guidance suggests this southern short wave will deamplify as it translates across northern Mexico, then into the southern High Plains during the overnight hours. Modest 12hr height falls will overspread this region and southeasterly 850mb flow is expected to respond and increase across the Edwards Plateau into western OK ahead of the short wave. As a result, a modified Gulf air mass will begin to advance inland and 50s surface dew points are expected to overspread the southern High Plains by peak heating, with further moistening expected along the I35 corridor well into the overnight hours. Latest guidance suggests modest boundary-layer heating will be noted from far West TX into western OK such that 500-1000 J/kg SBCAPE is expected prior to potential convective development. Ample deep layer shear will be present for organized updrafts and an increasing LLJ should encourage convection during the overnight hours. Forecast soundings suggest convective temperatures will be breached by 22-23z and HREF guidance supports this with isolated-scattered storms evolving across far West TX into western OK by early evening. This activity will gradually increase in areal coverage as it spreads/develops east-northeast during the overnight hours. Wind profiles favor supercell development and large hail will be the primary concern, along with gust potential. Some consideration was given to increasing severe probabilities across this region but instability is not expected to be particularly noteworthy. Will continue to monitor this region as moisture returns to the southern Plains. ..Darrow/Supinie.. 02/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 2
SPC Day 2 Outlook Discussion
ACUS02 KWNS 130559 SWODY2 SPC AC 130557 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1157 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley, mainly late Saturday afternoon through Saturday night, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...Discussion... Mid/upper flow is in the process of amplifying across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific. Downstream of a prominent building mid-level ridge, it appears that a significant mid-level trough will dig offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by at least modest surface cyclogenesis. Further downstream, mid-level ridging appears likely to continue building inland across the southern Great Basin and southern California through much of the Four Corners states. Guidance indicates that a preceding short wave trough will remain progressive across and east of the southern Great Plains, in the wake of larger-scale troughing shifting away from the Atlantic Seaboard. However, there remains notable spread among the various model output concerning the movement of this perturbation across Texas toward the lower Mississippi Valley through this period. Forcing for ascent accompanying this short wave is forecast to support surface cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies, but this may remain modest to weak, particularly across the southern Great Plains, with the most notable deepening generally not forecast to occur until Saturday night across southeast Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Southern Great Plains into lower Mississippi Valley... It appears that widespread, layered cloud cover and precipitation will precede the short wave trough through much of the south central U.S. by 12Z Saturday, and this may tend to inhibit potential for appreciable destabilization, despite an influx of Gulf boundary-layer moisture characterized by mid 50s to mid 60s F surface dew points across much of Texas and Oklahoma. At least somewhat drier air advecting in mid-levels to the south of the Red River might allow for daytime warming and breaks in the low-level overcast. However, stronger mid-level cooling, to the north of a 70-80 kt 500 mb jet streak propagating south of the Texas Big Bend toward northwest Gulf coastal areas, might be the primary contributor to destabilization. Based on forecast soundings, most unstable parcels might remain mostly rooted above a saturated near-surface layer with generally moist adiabatic lapse rates, particularly across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Valley. Even so, the destabilization (including CAPE on the order of 500+ J/kg), in the presence of strong deeper-layer shear, may become supportive of vigorous thunderstorm development posing a risk for severe hail, at least initially. Aided by favorable large-scale forcing for ascent, there does appear potential for stronger convection to consolidate and organize across central toward southeastern Texas late Saturday afternoon into evening. As this occurs, the development of strong surface gusts might not be out of the question. Tornadic potential may be limited due to weak near surface lapse rates/instability, but low-level hodographs could become more conducive across southeastern Texas into the lower Mississippi Saturday night, as the surface cyclone deepens. ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 3
SPC Day 3 Outlook Discussion
ACUS03 KWNS 130830 SWODY3 SPC AC 130829 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorm development, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather, may continue into the day Sunday across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast region. ...Discussion... Within the prevailing split flow across the Pacific, a prominent blocking ridge centered over the mid-latitude Pacific (near 160W) may undergo further amplification toward the higher latitudes, across and north-northwest of the Aleutians in mid/upper levels. As this occurs, and a vigorous downstream short wave trough digs near/offshore of the British Columbia coast, a significant mid-level trough initially over the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific is forecast to slowly accelerate toward the California/Baja coast. It appears that a shorter wavelength perturbation pivoting through the base of this feature will support renewed cyclogenesis, but this is generally forecast to occur and remain offshore of central and southern California coastal areas through 12Z Monday, as an initial occluding cyclone weakens to the north and northwest. Downstream, guidance suggests that flow across the Rockies into the western Atlantic may trend more zonal, with short wave developments within the converging branches of westerlies remaining out of phase. In the southern branch, mid-level ridging is forecast to broaden eastward across the southern Rockies through lower Mississippi Valley, in the wake of mid-level short wave troughing progressing into and across much of the southern Atlantic Seaboard by late Sunday night. Spread within the latest model output appears to be decreasing concerning this troughing. A mid-level cyclonic circulation, associated with a weakening surface cyclone, may progress to the lee of the southern Appalachians before weakening, as trailing short wave troughing tends to dig across the northeastern Gulf and adjacent eastern Gulf coast through Florida Peninsula. ...Eastern Gulf States... The strongest portion of the weakening jet core, particularly at mid-levels, may remain largely offshore across the north central through northeastern Gulf through much of the day Sunday. At the same time, southerly warm sector low-level wind fields are also forecast to weaken, as the surface cyclone begins to weaken. It appears that this may commence during the morning, though how fast remains uncertain due to lingering model spread. It is possible that a fairly organized convective system may be ongoing at 12Z Sunday across eastern Mississippi through parts of southeastern Louisiana, though NAM forecast soundings suggest that this activity may be based above at least a shallow saturated surface-based layer with moist adiabatic or more stable lapse rates. This may remain the case as activity develops eastward, with stronger convection becoming increasing focused closer to eastern Gulf coastal areas, and perhaps being maintained into northern portions of the Florida Peninsula by Sunday evening. However, strong to locally damaging wind gusts and small hail may still be possible with stronger storms, before convection weakens. ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026 $$ |
Convective Outlook Day 4-8
SPC Day 4-8 Outlook Discussion
ACUS48 KWNS 131000 SWOD48 SPC AC 130959 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026 Valid 161200Z - 211200Z ...DISCUSSION... It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W longitude) through next week. Downstream, the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week. However, developments within the branching westerlies across and inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week. Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. The timing of potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the various model output, including one possible developing cyclone across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week. Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development. Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western flank of the subtropical ridge. ..Kerr.. 02/13/2026
Convective Weather Outlook Legend Data
- TSTMÂ (light green) – General or non-severe thunderstorms – Delineates, to the right of a line, where a 10% or greater probability of thunderstorms is forecast during the valid period.
- 1-MRGL (dark green) – Marginal risk – An area of severe storms of either limited organization and longevity, or very low coverage and marginal intensity.
- 2-SLGT (yellow) – Slight risk – An area of organized severe storms, which is not widespread in coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 3-ENHÂ (orange) – Enhanced risk – An area of greater (relative to Slight risk) severe storm coverage with varying levels of intensity.
- 4-MDT (red) – Moderate risk – An area where widespread severe weather with several tornadoes and/or numerous severe thunderstorms is likely, some of which should be intense. This risk is usually reserved for days with several supercells producing intense tornadoes and/or very large hail. Or an intense squall line with widespread damaging winds.
- 5-HIGH (magenta) – High risk – An area where a severe weather outbreak is expected from either numerous intense and long-tracked tornadoes. Also, a long-lived derecho-producing thunderstorm complex that produces hurricane-force wind gusts and widespread damage. This risk is reserved for when high confidence exists in widespread coverage of severe weather with embedded instances of extreme severe. (i.e., violent tornadoes or very damaging convective wind events).
This data is courtesy from the Storm Prediction Center