Remnants of Eleven-E Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 032040
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Eleven-E Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP112024
300 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024

A recent ASCAT overpass shows that a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind
event has interacted with the depression and disrupted the
circulation.  The scatterometer data indicate that there is no
longer a well-defined closed circulation. although tropical-storm
force winds are occurring to the northwest of the remains of the
center.  Based on this, the depression has degenerated to an open
trough even though there are now stronger winds associated with the
system than earlier.  Thus, advisories and the Tropical Storm
Warnings are being discontinued, and the current winds will be
handled in marine gale warnings.

The remnants of the center are near a cluster of convection over
the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and they should move northward over
southeastern Mexico in the next 6-12 h.  The remnants are expected
to dissipate over Mexico on Friday.

Although the depression has degenerated, the threat of heavy
rainfall will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the
next day or two.

For additional information on the remnant low please see forecasts
from the Meteorological Service of Mexico and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Although the Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued,
wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible for the next
several hours along the coast of the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
particularly in areas of onshore winds.

2. Due to the remnants of Tropical Depression Eleven-E, additional 
heavy rainfall is likely across portions of southern Mexico this 
week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, 
are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of 
Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/2100Z 15.7N  94.6W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  04/0600Z 16.5N  94.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
 24H  04/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven