000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311443 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Agatha Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022 1000 AM CDT Tue May 31 2022 The mountainous terrain of southern Mexico continues to take a toll on Agatha. Although a fairly well-defined mid-level circulation is still evident in satellite imagery, the low-level center has dissipated over southern Mexico. Therefore, this will be the final advisory on Agatha. The initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt, and continued weakening should occur today. The remnants are moving northeastward or 045/7 kt and this general motion should persist for the next 48 h or so. Deep convection, with heavy rainfall, extends across southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. This moisture will spread eastward across the remainder of southeastern Mexico, the Yucatan Peninsula, Guatemala, and Belize during the next day or so. During this time frame, numerical model guidance suggests that the remnants of Agatha will be absorbed within a larger cyclonic gyre over southeastern Mexico. Development within the broad low could occur over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or southeastern Gulf of Mexico later this week. Please see NHC's Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook for more details. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rains associated with remnants of Agatha will continue over portions of southern Mexico through tonight. This will pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 17.3N 94.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF AGATHA 12H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Bucci