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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


804 
WTNT32 KNHC 272046
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...8.6N 50.9W
ABOUT 720 MI...1155 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for Trinidad, Tobago, and Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the ABC Islands should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
8.6 North, longitude 50.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.  On the forecast track,
the system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Island by late Tuesday, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea
or near the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Conditions appear conducive for development, and the disturbance
will likely become a tropical storm before reaching the southern
Windward Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela starting Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
following storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 4 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by late Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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