Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Public Advisory


263 
WTNT32 KNHC 281744
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
200 PM AST Tue Jun 28 2022

...DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 58.2W
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF TRINIDAD
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Trinidad and Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Islas de Margarita, Coche and Cubagua
* Bonaire
* Curacao
* Aruba

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Venezuela from Pedernales to Cumana

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands, the northern coast of
Venezuela, and the northeastern coast of Colombia should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
10.0 North, longitude 58.2 West.  The system is moving toward the
west near 23 mph (37 km/h).  A westward or west-northwestward
motion is expected through Thursday.  On the forecast track, the
system will pass near or over portions of the southern Windward
Islands by tonight, and move over the southern Caribbean Sea or near
the northern coast of Venezuela on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days if
the disturbance remains over water.

Conditions appear conducive for development if the disturbance
remains over water, and it will likely become a tropical storm near
the southern Windward Islands or while moving westward across the
southern Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO
header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands and the northeastern
coast of Venezuela later today through Wednesday.  The following
storm total rainfall amounts are expected:

Islands from Guadeloupe to St. Lucia: 1 to 3 inches.

St. Vincent, the Grenadines, and Barbados: 3 to 5 inches.

Grenada, Trinidad and Tobago, and northeastern Venezuela: 4 to 6
inches.

Aruba, Curacao, and Bonaire: 3 to 5 inches.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
the southern Windward Islands this evening and tonight, over Islas 
Margarita and the adjacent islands Wednesday morning,  and over the 
ABC Islands by Wednesday evening.  Tropical storm conditions are 
possible in the watch area along the northeastern coast of Venezuela 
tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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