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Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion


850 
WTNT42 KNHC 272046
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Mon Jun 27 2022

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft just investigated the tropical
wave to the east-southeast of the Windward Islands, and found that
the system has not yet developed a closed circulation.  However the
plane did find an area of tropical-storm-force winds over the
northern portion of the system.  The disturbance is producing some
cells of strong convection, but overall the system is not very well
organized.  Since there is a good chance that the disturbance
will become a tropical storm before reaching the southern Windward
Islands, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical
Cyclone Two.  The environment looks fairly favorable for
development, but the numerical guidance is generally not that
bullish on strengthening for the next couple of days.  The official
intensity forecast is similar to the correct consensus model, HCCA.

Although the center is not well defined, my best estimate of the
initial motion is about 285/16 kt.  A strong 500 mb subtropical
ridge is likely to remain in place to the north of the system
through the forecast period.  This steering scenario should cause a
west-northwestward to westward track for the next several days.
The official track forecast is close to the dynamical model
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected over the Windward Islands and
northeastern Venezuela Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

2.  Winds to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the
southern Windward Islands beginning late Tuesday and into Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/2100Z  8.6N  50.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  28/0600Z  9.3N  53.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 24H  28/1800Z 10.1N  57.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 36H  29/0600Z 10.8N  61.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  29/1800Z 11.4N  65.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  30/0600Z 11.8N  69.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  30/1800Z 12.1N  72.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 96H  01/1800Z 12.2N  79.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  02/1800Z 12.3N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch




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