Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT42 KNHC 292058
TCDAT2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022022
500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022

The system has changed little in organization today, and 
in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance.  Most of the 
heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over 
the northern portion of the disturbance.  Reports from a NOAA 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that 
the current intensity remains near 35 kt.  High-resolution visible 
satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a 
center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface 
observations are still not very conclusive.  Radar images from 
Curacao also do not yet show a definite center.  The system 
could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time.

The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt.  
There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. 
The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to 
the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for 
most of the forecast period.  The latest HCCA prediction shows a 
slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due 
to the input from the ECMWF model.  The new NHC forecast is not 
much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther 
south after 36 hours or so.

Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, 
it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence 
of the South American land mass.  The system is expected to 
approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a 
Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the 
Caribbean coast of Nicaragua.  After some expected weakening from 
crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the 
eastern North Pacific basin.

KEY MESSAGES:

1.  Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC 
Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia 
through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by 
Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the 
potential for mudslides.

2.  Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands 
for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along 
the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of 
Colombia tonight and early Thursday.

3.  Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch 
area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with 
tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. 


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/2100Z 11.6N  69.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  30/0600Z 11.8N  71.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  30/1800Z 12.0N  75.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  01/0600Z 11.7N  79.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  01/1800Z 11.4N  82.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0600Z 11.1N  85.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 72H  02/1800Z 11.2N  87.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...OVER WATER
 96H  03/1800Z 12.3N  92.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  04/1800Z 13.5N  98.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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