000 WTNT42 KNHC 292058 TCDAT2 Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022022 500 PM AST Wed Jun 29 2022 The system has changed little in organization today, and in fact has taken on a more elongated appearance. Most of the heavier showers and stronger winds are occurring in a long band over the northern portion of the disturbance. Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a Dvorak classification indicate that the current intensity remains near 35 kt. High-resolution visible satellite images suggest that the system may trying to close off a center to the south of the ABC Islands, but the surface observations are still not very conclusive. Radar images from Curacao also do not yet show a definite center. The system could make the transition to a tropical cyclone at any time. The initial motion continues to be rapidly westward, or 280/18 kt. There is not much change in the track forecast reasoning. The flow on the southern side of a large mid-tropospheric ridge to the north of the system should maintain a mainly westward track for most of the forecast period. The latest HCCA prediction shows a slightly more southern track after 1-2 days than before, likely due to the input from the ECMWF model. The new NHC forecast is not much different from the previous one, but is only a little farther south after 36 hours or so. Since the system is expected to remain in a low-shear environment, it is likely to strengthen after it moves away from the influence of the South American land mass. The system is expected to approach hurricane strength over the southwestern Caribbean, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for a portion of the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua. After some expected weakening from crossing Central America, the system should regain strength over the eastern North Pacific basin. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall is expected to spread westward across the ABC Islands, portions of northern Venezuela, and northeast Columbia through Thursday morning, and reach Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Friday. Areas of flash flooding are expected, along with the potential for mudslides. 2. Winds to tropical storm force are expected over the ABC Islands for the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected along the northwestern coast of Venezuela and the northeastern coast of Colombia tonight and early Thursday. 3. Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch area along the Caribbean coast of Nicaragua by late Friday, with tropical storm conditions possible by Friday afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 11.6N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0600Z 11.8N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1800Z 12.0N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 11.7N 79.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 11.4N 82.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 02/0600Z 11.1N 85.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 02/1800Z 11.2N 87.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 03/1800Z 12.3N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 13.5N 98.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch