000 WTPZ32 KNHC 290605 CCA TCPEP2 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E Intermediate Advisory Number 1A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022023 100 AM CDT Thu Jun 29 2023 Corrected to change 5 days to 7 days in the genesis probabilities section. ...DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AND GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED... ...TROPICAL STORM EXPECTED TO FORM OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO ON THURSDAY... SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 97.3W ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * North of Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 97.3 West. The system is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for next few days. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the system is expected to become a tropical storm by Thursday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Two-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep2.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area beginning late Wednesday or early Thursday. RAINFALL: Through Saturday, storm total rainfall of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum amounts of 7 inches, is expected across southern Mexico from Oaxaca west to Jalisco. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding. SURF: Swells generated by this system are forecast to build and spread along the southwestern coast during the next couple days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven