Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 022334
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
700 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

...HEAVY RAINFALL TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 87.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of The Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for 
the northwestern Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas 
* Lake Okeechobee 
* Florida Bay 
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque, Havana, Artemisa, Pinar
del Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula should monitor the 
progress of this system. Tropical storm warnings may be required 
later tonight for portions of the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
21.5 North, longitude 87.5 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
tonight.  A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday, and a
faster motion toward the northeast is expected Friday night and
Saturday.  On the forecast track, the system should move across the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Friday night, and then move
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. The system is expected to become a tropical depression 
later tonight or on Friday and a tropical storm late Friday or 
Friday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface 
observations is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
heavy rains over the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the
Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Friday.  Heavy rains will
begin to affect South Florida and the Keys Friday and continue
through Saturday. The following storm total rainfall amounts are
currently expected:

Eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and the Cayman Islands: 2
to 4 inches, with isolated maximum of 6 inches.

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maximum of 14 inches.
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

South Florida including the Keys:  4 to 8 inches with maximum totals
of 12 inches.  This rain may produce considerable flash and urban
flooding especially across the urban corridors.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in Cuba on Friday, and in the watch area in Florida and the 
northwestern Bahamas by Friday night or Saturday morning.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi



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