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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Public Advisory


000
WTNT31 KNHC 040237
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Advisory Number   6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1100 PM EDT Fri Jun 03 2022

...DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER
WESTERN CUBA, THE FLORIDA KEYS, AND SOUTH FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 83.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys including the Dry Tortugas
* Florida Bay
* West coast of Florida south of the Middle of Longboat Key to Card
Sound Bridge
* East coast of Florida south of the Volusia/Brevard County Line to
Card Sound Bridge
* Lake Okeechobee
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, and
Mayabeque
* Northwestern Bahamas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Matanzas and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the 
next 6 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida Peninsula and Bermuda should
monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States, 
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor 
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast 
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the 
United States, please monitor products issued by your national 
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 24.5 North, longitude 83.7 West. The system is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and a northeastward 
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the 
next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the system should move 
across the southern and central portions of the Florida Peninsula on
Saturday, and then over the southwestern Atlantic north of the
northwestern Bahamas late Saturday through Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. No change in status or strength is expected before the 
disturbance moves across Florida, but the system is expected to 
develop a well-defined center and strengthen slightly late this 
weekend and early next week over the western Atlantic.  
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone One can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone will continue to produce 
heavy rains across western Cuba tonight. Heavy rainfall will also 
affect the northwestern Bahamas, the Keys, South Florida, and 
Central Florida tonight through Saturday. The following storm total 
rainfall amounts are expected:

Western Cuba: 6 to 10 inches, with isolated maxima of 14 inches. 
This rain may cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.

Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys: 4 to 8 inches 
with isolated maxima of 12 inches across South Florida and in the 
Keys. This rain may produce considerable flash and urban flooding.

Northwestern Bahamas: 3 to 6 inches with maxima of 10 inches. This 
rain may produce flash and urban flooding.

WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
in Cuba through tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in 
the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions 
are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight.

STORM SURGE:  The combination of storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to Card Sound Bridge...1-3 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Marco Island, FL...1-2 ft
Charlotte Harbor...1-2 ft
Florida Keys and Dry Tortugas...1-2 ft
Card Sound Bridge to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...1-2 ft

Extreme Northwestern Bahamas: Storm surge could raise water levels
by as much 1 to 3 ft above normal tide levels.

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.  For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys tonight and Saturday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi



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