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Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 022057
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air 
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low 
pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan 
Peninsula of Mexico.  This system is currently producing poorly 
organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects 
of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear.  The central 
pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed 
winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center.  Due to the 
possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with 
impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula 
and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical 
Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas.

The initial motion is 360/3.  The system should turn northeastward 
during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the 
mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should 
continue through the end of the forecast period.  The guidance is 
in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida 
Peninsula on Saturday.  It should be noted that the guidance 
suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to 
convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track 
superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion.

The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very 
uncertain.  It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum 
winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction 
with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant 
development over the Gulf of Mexico.  The guidance does suggests 
slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity 
forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in 
about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h.  However, these winds 
are likely to be well removed from the center.  Interaction with a 
mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over 
the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast.  
Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over 
portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the 
Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this 
system.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue 
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.  Life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 

2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida 
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and 
urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South 
Florida and in the Keys. 

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in 
western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch 
area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and 
Saturday. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 21.4N  87.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/0600Z 22.3N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  03/1800Z 23.5N  86.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 24.8N  84.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 26.5N  82.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 28.7N  79.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 30.6N  76.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 33.5N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 36.0N  64.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven



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