000 WTNT41 KNHC 022057 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022 Satellite imagery, surface observations, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that a broad low pressure area is centered over the northeastern part of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. This system is currently producing poorly organized convection in the northeastern quadrant due to the effects of 20-30 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear. The central pressure is near 1003 mb, and earlier scatterometer data showed winds near 30 kt well to the east of the center. Due to the possibility that the system could become a tropical storm with impacts in the Florida Keys, and portions of the Florida Peninsula and western Cuba, advisories are initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone One with tropical storm watches issued for those areas. The initial motion is 360/3. The system should turn northeastward during the next 12-24 h as it encounters the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and a general northeastward motion should continue through the end of the forecast period. The guidance is in good agreement that the system should cross the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. It should be noted that the guidance suggests the possibility that the center could re-form due to convective bursts, which would cause jumps in the track superimposed on top of the general northeastward motion. The intensity and structure forecasts for this system are very uncertain. It has a large envelope and a large radius of maximum winds, and a combination of moderate to strong shear and interaction with an upper-level trough seem unfavorable for significant development over the Gulf of Mexico. The guidance does suggests slight development despite the hostile conditions, so the intensity forecast calls for the system to become a tropical depression in about 12 h and a tropical storm in about 24 h. However, these winds are likely to be well removed from the center. Interaction with a mid-latitude trough could allow some additional strengthening over the Atlantic, and this is reflected in the intensity forecast. Regardless of development, widespread heavy rain will occur over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas in association with this system. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across the urban corridors in South Florida and in the Keys. 3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and Friday night, and are possible in the watch area in the Florida Peninsula and Florida Keys Friday night and Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 21.4N 87.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 03/0600Z 22.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 03/1800Z 23.5N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 24.8N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 26.5N 82.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 28.7N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 30.6N 76.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 33.5N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 36.0N 64.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven