Atlantic Hurricane Feed

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion

WTNT41 KNHC 032032

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become
better organized since the last advisory.  What is passing for the
center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern
Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity
maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean
position along this trough.  The aircraft did not find any
tropical-storm-force winds during its mission.  However,
Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt
winds are occuring in the convective cluster near western Cuba
about 150 n mi east of the center.  Based on this, the system has
not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a
35-kt potential tropical cyclone.  It should be noted that the
initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are
only occurring over a small area well east of the center.

While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears
to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt.  There is
no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory.
The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the
mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that
it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast
during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues
to bring the system across the southern or central Florida
Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east-
northeastward across the western Atlantic.  The track guidance
remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast
track is little changed from the previous forecast.  It is still
possible that there could be erratic motion due to center
re-formation caused by convective bursts.

Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until
the system reaches the Florida Peninsula.  However, it remains
likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough
organized convection and improved circulation for the system to 
become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h.  This could also cause 
slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little 
more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due 
primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough.  This 
interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which 
is forecast to be complete at about 96 h.  The new intensity 
forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast.

The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy
rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the
southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern
Bahamas during the next couple of days.


1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western
Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are

2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South
Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South
Florida and in the Keys.  Flash and urban flooding is also possible
across the northwestern Bahamas.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in
western Cuba this afternoon and tonight, in Florida tonight and on
Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  Tropical
storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba
this afternoon and tonight.


INIT  03/2100Z 23.0N  85.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  04/0600Z 24.4N  84.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/1800Z 26.4N  81.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/0600Z 28.5N  78.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 48H  05/1800Z 30.5N  75.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 32.0N  70.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 33.1N  66.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 34.0N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  08/1800Z 35.5N  54.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Forecaster Beven

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