000 WTNT41 KNHC 032032 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012022 400 PM CDT Fri Jun 03 2022 Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the disturbance has not become better organized since the last advisory. What is passing for the center is an elongated trough extending from the northeastern Yucatan peninsula to near 25N 84W with several embedded vorticity maxima, and the center position for this advisory is a mean position along this trough. The aircraft did not find any tropical-storm-force winds during its mission. However, Doppler wind data from the Key West WSR-88D radar suggests 35-kt winds are occuring in the convective cluster near western Cuba about 150 n mi east of the center. Based on this, the system has not developed the structure of a tropical cyclone and remains a 35-kt potential tropical cyclone. It should be noted that the initial 34-kt wind radii are a little deceiving, as those winds are only occurring over a small area well east of the center. While the initial motion is still somewhat uncertain, it appears to be a little faster toward the northeast at 040/6 kt. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. The disturbance is now encountering the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the guidance is in good agreement that it should move at a faster forward speed toward the northeast during the next 48-72 h. Based on this, the forecast track continues to bring the system across the southern or central Florida Peninsula on Saturday. After 48-72 h, the system should move east- northeastward across the western Atlantic. The track guidance remains in good agreement with this scenario, and the new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast. It is still possible that there could be erratic motion due to center re-formation caused by convective bursts. Strong southwesterly vertical shear is forecast to continue until the system reaches the Florida Peninsula. However, it remains likely that convective bursts near the center will create enough organized convection and improved circulation for the system to become a tropical storm in the next 12-24 h. This could also cause slight strengthening before the system reaches Florida. A little more strengthening is again forecast over the Atlantic, due primarily to interaction with a mid-latitude trough. This interaction will eventually lead to extratropical transition, which is forecast to be complete at about 96 h. The new intensity forecast again has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast. The main impact from this system continues to be widespread heavy rain that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas during the next couple of days. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected across western Cuba, where life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are possible. 2. Heavy rain will affect portions of Central Florida, South Florida, and the Florida Keys today and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys. Flash and urban flooding is also possible across the northwestern Bahamas. 3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight, in Florida tonight and on Saturday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba this afternoon and tonight. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 23.0N 85.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 04/0600Z 24.4N 84.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 04/1800Z 26.4N 81.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0600Z 28.5N 78.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 05/1800Z 30.5N 75.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/0600Z 32.0N 70.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 33.1N 66.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/1800Z 34.0N 59.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 08/1800Z 35.5N 54.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven