Atlantic Basin Tropical Cyclones

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Forecast Discussion


000
WTNT41 KNHC 030247
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone One Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL012022
1000 PM CDT Thu Jun 02 2022

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the broad 
area of low pressure centered near the coast of the northeastern 
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula has changed little in organization 
this evening. Strong southwesterly shear continues to keep the
associated deep convection confined to the east and northeast of the 
estimated center of the system. There have been very little new 
data to provide clarity of the system's intensity since the 
previous advisory. However, based on the system's consistently 
ragged appearance, it is assumed that there has been little change 
from the 30 kt analyzed from the previous advisory. The 1003 mb 
central pressure is based on surface observations.   Another Air 
Force reconnaissance aircraft will be investigating the low 
overnight.

The system still does not have a well-defined center, and for this 
reason it is not yet being classified as a tropical cyclone. There 
have been a few low-level swirls evident in satellite images 
rotating around a larger mean center, and this center appears to 
have been slowly meandering northward for the past several hours. 
Models are in good agreement that the system should begin to turn 
northeastward and increase its forward speed overnight and Friday as 
it encounters mid-latitude westerlies. This motion should continue 
for the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is 
a little faster than the previous one due to an overall increase in 
forward motion by most of the models. It should continue to be noted 
that most model solutions indicate that the center will likely 
re-form due to convective bursts during the next couple of days, 
which may cause some jumps in the track not indicated in the 
official forecast. Based on the latest NHC forecast track, the 
center of the the system should cross the southern or 
central portion of the Florida peninsula on Saturday.

The broad nature of this system combined with strong shear should 
limit its development before reaching the Florida Peninsula. 
However, the deep convective bursts will likely result in 
consolidation of a low-level center sometime or the next 12 h or so
resulting in genesis, with some slight strengthening into a tropical 
storm indicated by late tomorrow. After crossing Florida, the system 
is forecast to interact with an upper-trough which could allow for 
some additional strengthening. By 120 h, the storm is forecast to 
encounter cooler waters and should be interacting with a baroclinic 
zone, thus transforming it into an extratropical cyclone. 

Based on the latest forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings have been 
issued for portions of the Florida Peninsula and the Florida Keys.  
The main impact from this system will be widespread heavy rain 
that is expected to spread over portions of western Cuba, the 
southern Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern 
Bahamas during the next couple of days.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Heavy rain associated with the system is expected to continue 
through Friday across the eastern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, 
the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.  Life-threatening flash 
flooding and mudslides are possible across western Cuba. 

2. Heavy rain will begin to affect South Florida and the Florida 
Keys Friday and continue through Saturday. Considerable flash and 
urban flooding is possible across South Florida and in the Keys.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in 
the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida Friday night 
and early Saturday, and are possible in the watch area elsewhere in 
Florida Friday night through Saturday.  Tropical storm conditions 
are also possible in the watch area in western Cuba Friday and 
Friday night, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/0300Z 21.8N  87.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  03/1200Z 22.5N  87.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
 24H  04/0000Z 23.9N  85.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/1200Z 25.6N  83.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  05/0000Z 27.6N  80.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  05/1200Z 29.9N  77.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/0000Z 31.6N  74.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  07/0000Z 34.2N  67.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  08/0000Z 35.9N  62.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi



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