Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Wind Speed Probabilities

855 
FONT14 KNHC 132048
PWSAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN                                 
WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   1                                 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024               
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN WAS      
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                     

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   3(10)   6(16)

BELIZE CITY    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   7(13)   4(17)   9(26)
BELIZE CITY    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)
BELIZE CITY    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

PUERTO BARRIOS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   5(18)

GUANAJA        34  X   X( X)  13(13)  23(36)  17(53)   7(60)   2(62)
GUANAJA        50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   8( 9)  10(19)   4(23)   3(26)
GUANAJA        64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)

PUERTO CABEZAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   1(11)

BLUEFIELDS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

TEGUCIGALPA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)

P SAN JOSE     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

SAN ANDRES     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)

GRAND CAYMAN   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   1(11)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY