Potential Tropical Cyclone Nineteen Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT24 KNHC 132047
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL192024
2100 UTC WED NOV 13 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  79.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  25 KT WITH GUSTS TO  35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  79.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N  78.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.2N  80.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.3N  83.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.4N  84.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.4N  84.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  70SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.3N  84.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N  84.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 16.3N  85.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  90SW 100NW.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N  79.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KELLY