Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory

000
WTNT24 KNHC 240858
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092024
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  83.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N  83.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N  82.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 19.6N  84.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.7N  85.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  70SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.0N  86.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 24.3N  85.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.8N  84.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 110SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 31.9N  83.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  70SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE  70SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 38.5N  85.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N  83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 24/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE