000 WTNT44 KNHC 200231 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022 1000 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022 Based on the current infrared and microwave satellite data, the system does not appear to have a closed surface circulation yet and is therefore still not a tropical cyclone. The mid-level center is estimated to be located in the southwestern portion of the deep convection. Since there has been little change in organization after the Air Force reconnaissance left the system, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt based on that data. The disturbance is moving northwestward at 12 kt. This general motion is expected to continue until landfall Saturday night in northeastern Mexico as the system is steered by a ridge to its northeast. The official track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory prediction and closest to the correct consensus model guidance. Slight strengthening of the system is expected before landfall. Global models predict the vertical wind shear to increase in the next day or so, which should limit future organization and strengthening of the disturbance. The NHC intensity forecast continues to show a peak of 40 kt before the system reaches the coast. It is worth noting that this intensity prediction is slightly above the guidance envelope. After moving inland, the system is expected to weaken rapidly and dissipate within 48 hours near the Texas/Mexico border. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued. 2. Rains from the disturbance may begin to affect the eastern coast of Mexico, from northern Veracruz across parts of Tamaulipas and Nuevo Leon, during the day Saturday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Heavy rain may also move to the far south Texas coast through Saturday night, producing local flash, urban, and small stream flood impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 21.8N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 20/1200Z 23.2N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 21/0000Z 25.1N 97.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 21/1200Z 26.9N 99.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 22/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi