Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Discussion

866 
WTNT43 KNHC 162037
TCDAT3

Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL082024
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Scatterometer data earlier today showed a very elongated surface 
circulation with frontal features extending from the low, confirming 
the non-tropical structure of the system. In fact, current 
observations show a significant temperature and dewpoint gradient 
remains along the boundary. Based on radar data and surface 
observations, the poorly-defined low center is likely near the coast 
or just inland over northeastern South Carolina. Although it failed 
to develop a well-defined center and the necessary organization to 
become a tropical cyclone, the low has produced significant impacts 
today, with life-threatening flash flooding reported in portions of 
southeastern North Carolina and wind gusts in excess of 60 mph along 
the coast. Another band of heavy rainfall is currently moving 
onshore over the Cape Fear region, with heavy rains also spreading 
farther inland. Recent surface observations show the sustained winds 
have diminished below tropical storm force, and the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt.

The system is moving north-northwestward at about 6 kt. This motion 
will bring the system farther inland over the Carolinas tonight and 
Tuesday, where it is expected to quickly weaken and dissipate. 
Although the wind threat has subsided, heavy rainfall and flash 
flooding remain a serious concern for portions of the Carolinas. For 
more information on this system, see products issued by the Weather 
Prediction Center and your local National Weather Service office.

Since the system is no longer producing sustained
tropical-storm-force winds, the Tropical Storm Warnings for the
Carolinas have been discontinued. Therefore, this will be the final
NHC advisory on the system.


Key Messages:

1. Additional considerable flash and urban flooding and minor river 
flooding is possible across southern North Carolina and northeast 
South Carolina through tonight. There is also a risk of isolated 
flash and urban flooding for the southern Mid-Atlantic region and 
southern Appalachians through Wednesday.

2. Gusty winds will continue along portions of the coasts of South
Carolina and North Carolina into this evening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/2100Z 33.9N  78.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
 12H  17/0600Z 34.4N  79.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1800Z 34.9N  80.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart