000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162044 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ivette Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102022 200 PM PDT Tue Aug 16 2022 Although there has been sporadic and disorganized convection mainly to the southwest of the center of Ivette today, this system lacks sufficient organized, deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last NHC advisory. The initial intensity is lowered to 25 kt based on the satellite intensity estimate from TAFB. Some additional sporadic bursts of convection may occur over the next day or two while the remnant low is over marginally warm waters. However, persistent strong easterly vertical wind shear associated with a large upper-level anticyclone to the north of the system should prevent any significant convective reorganization for the next several days. Ivette has continued its motion westward at 5 kt. Over the next day or so, the system should turn west-northwestward in the low-level flow. A building low-level ridge to the northwest of Ivette should eventually steer the remnants westward and then west-southwestward until it opens up into a trough in a few days. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 17.5N 115.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 18.1N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/Pasch