Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Forecast Discussion

227 
WTPZ44 KNHC 151440
TCDEP4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Ileana Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092024
800 AM MST Sun Sep 15 2024

Ileana has been devoid of deep convection since yesterday afternoon, 
as the system has been within a strong wind shear and very dry 
environment. Given the lack of convection, the system is being 
designated as a post-tropical remnant low.  An ASCAT-C pass from 
late last night depicted winds near 30 kt over the Gulf of 
California near northern Sinaloa.  Given this, will hold the 
intensity at 30 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous.

The system has been meandering over the Gulf of California with a 
motion of 310/3 kt.  The remnant low will increase forward speed 
later today as it continues northwestward.  The remnant low will 
continue to weaken throughout the day, and is forecast to dissipate 
on Monday. 

This is the last advisory on this system. For additional 
information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO 
header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 25.7N 109.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  16/0000Z 26.1N 110.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  16/1200Z 27.3N 111.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly