Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ42 KNHC 262036
TCDEP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP022024
200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Bud has failed to produce any organized deep convection near its 
low-level center during the last 18 hours or so. Therefore, it no 
longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and Bud is 
being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. The 
intensity estimate is a little uncertain because of the lack of 
recent scatterometer data, but subjective and objective satellite 
intensity estimates are around 25-32 kt. Therefore, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory.

Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level 
subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward  
for the remainder of today.  Over the weekend, the post-tropical low 
and its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level 
trade wind flow. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow 
cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable 
environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could 
occur during the next couple of days, this should not stop the 
overall weakening trend.

This is the last NHC advisory on Bud. For additional information on 
the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header 
NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/2100Z 19.2N 120.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  29/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Kelly