000 WTPZ42 KNHC 262036 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has failed to produce any organized deep convection near its low-level center during the last 18 hours or so. Therefore, it no longer satisfies the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and Bud is being designated as a post-tropical cyclone with this advisory. The intensity estimate is a little uncertain because of the lack of recent scatterometer data, but subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates are around 25-32 kt. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward for the remainder of today. Over the weekend, the post-tropical low and its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. Gradual weakening is forecast as the shallow cyclone spins down over cooler waters and in a drier, more stable environment. While some intermittent bursts of convection could occur during the next couple of days, this should not stop the overall weakening trend. This is the last NHC advisory on Bud. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone, please see the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 19.2N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 27/0600Z 19.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1800Z 18.9N 123.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0600Z 18.5N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1800Z 17.8N 126.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bud Forecast Discussion
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Jul