2024-07-05 22:33:09
1720234035
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060232 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012024 800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024 Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta. Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down. Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island. Earlier ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt range at that time. No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a direction just south of due west until it dissipates. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi