Pacific Hurricane Feed

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Forecast Discussion

2024-07-05 22:33:09

WTPZ41 KNHC 060232

Post-Tropical Cyclone Aletta Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP012024
800 PM MST Fri Jul 05 2024

Convection has continued to diminish in association with Aletta. 
Little or no organized deep convection has been seen since late 
Thursday morning. Both the GFS and the ECMWF simulated satellite 
imagery do not indicate any return of deep convection. Given the 
marginal environment, the remnant low should continue to spin down. 
Aletta is forecast to dissipate on Saturday.

Do to the very poor appearance on satellite imagery and the lack of 
any pressure gradients in the area, the initial intensity has been 
lowered to 20 kt. Socorro Island measured a maximum wind of 21 kt a 
few hours ago as Aletta passed just south of the island.  Earlier 
ASCAT-B data from 1712 UTC only showed peak winds in the 20-25 kt 
range at that time.

No significant change has been made to the NHC track forecast. 
Aletta should continue to be steered by the low-level flow in a 
direction just south of due west until it dissipates.


INIT  06/0300Z 18.4N 111.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  06/1200Z 18.3N 112.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Hagen/Cangialosi

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