000
WTUS84 KCRP 190252
HLSCRP
TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-191100-
Potential Tropical Cyclone One Local Statement Advisory Number 6
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX AL012024
952 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024
This product covers South Texas
**Tropical Storm Warnings Continue**
NEW INFORMATION
---------------
* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None
* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Aransas Islands,
Calhoun Islands, Coastal Aransas, Coastal Calhoun, Coastal
Kleberg, Coastal Nueces, Coastal Refugio, Coastal San Patricio,
Inland Calhoun, Inland Kleberg, Inland Nueces, Inland Refugio,
Inland San Patricio, Kleberg Islands, and Nueces Islands
* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 450 miles southeast of Port Aransas TX or about 460 miles
southeast of Corpus Christi TX
- 22.5N 93.0W
- Storm Intensity 40 mph
- Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 7 mph
SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------
A very large area of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico continues to increase its likelihood of development into a
tropical system over the next 12-24 hours as it slowly traverses the
western Gulf. This system is expected to turn to the west-northwest
and become a tropical storm tomorrow with a most likely eventual
landfall along the Mexican coast Wednesday night. Tropical Storm
Warnings remain in effect along all coastal counties across
South Texas, the bays and Gulf waters out to 60 nm from Baffin
Bay through Port O'Connor.
Regardless of development and eventual landfall location, there are
several hazards and impacts expected across South Texas from tonight
through Thursday due to the large extent and slow movement of this
system. The main threats continue to be:
- Flash Flooding: Moderate to high threat of flash flooding tonight
through Thursday. Rainfall accumulations of 8-10" are expected along
the Coastal Bend and southern Brush Country with localized rainfall
amounts up to 15". Across the rest of the region, the Rio Grande
Plains, northern Brush Country and Victoria Crossroads could have
amounts as high as 5-7" through Thursday.
- Coastal Flooding: Significant coastal flooding is expected to begin
tonight with around 3 ft of inundation possible across the Middle
Texas Coast including the bays between Baffin Bay and Matagorda Bay.
Elevated water levels are expected to linger through Friday. In
addition, there is a High risk of rip currents.
- River Flooding: Considerable river flooding along portions of the
Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads from tonight through Thursday.
There is a 31% chance of Major flooding at the Aransas River at
Skidmore, 21% at Oso Creek and 25% at the Nueces River near Tilden.
The River Forecast Center has begun using forecasted rainfall amounts
to determine the potential for moderate to major river flooding.
- Winds: Sustained winds of 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph can be
expected across the Coastal Bend, while winds of up to 45 knots can be
expected over the bays and Gulf waters.
- Hazardous Seas: Wave heights 12 to 15 feet with occasionally up to
18 feet.
POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------
* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against life-threatening rainfall flooding having possible
extensive impacts across South Texas. Potential impacts include:
- Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may rapidly overflow their banks in
multiple places. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become dangerous rivers. Flood control systems and barriers may
become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or washed
away. Many places where flood waters may cover escape routes.
Streets and parking lots become rivers of moving water with
underpasses submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous.
Many road and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.
* SURGE:
Prepare for locally hazardous surge having possible limited impacts
across the Coastal Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Localized inundation with storm surge flooding mainly along
immediate shorelines and in low-lying spots, or in areas
farther inland near where higher surge waters move ashore.
- Sections of near-shore roads and parking lots become overspread
with surge water. Driving conditions dangerous in places where
surge water covers the road.
- Moderate beach erosion. Heavy surf also breaching dunes, mainly
in usually vulnerable locations. Strong rip currents.
- Minor to locally moderate damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks,
and piers. A few small craft broken away from moorings.
* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across the
Coastal Bend. Potential impacts in this area include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
Elsewhere across South Texas, little to no impact is anticipated.
* TORNADOES:
Protect against a tornado event having possible limited impacts
across South Texas. Potential impacts include:
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
pulled from moorings.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------
* EVACUATIONS:
Follow the advice of local officials.
* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.
Rapidly rising flood waters are deadly. If you are in a flood-prone
area, consider moving to higher ground. Never drive through a flooded
roadway. Remember, turn around don't drown!
Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather radio or local news outlets
for official storm information. Be ready to adapt to possible changes
to the forecast. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather
warnings.
* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on Texas evacuation routes, see
txdot.gov/driver/weather/hurricane.html
- For information on creating emergency kits, see texasready.gov
- For state assistance in an emergency event,
tdem.texas.gov/response/state-of-texas-emergency-assistance-registry
- For information on registering for emergency notifications in your
area visit the websites below...
- Corpus Christi and Nueces County: cctexas.com/reversealert
- San Patricio, Aransas, and Refugio County: coastalplainlepc.org
- Victoria County: vctx.org/page/oem.home
- Calhoun County: www.calhouncotx.org
NEXT UPDATE
-----------
The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Corpus Christi TX around 4 AM CDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.
$$
JCP