000 WTPZ32 KNHC 250838 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Hurricane Rick Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 400 AM CDT Mon Oct 25 2021 ...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RICK ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN ZIHUATANEJO AND LAZARO CARDENAS... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 101.9W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco * West of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Rick was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 101.9 West. Rick is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall on the coast of Mexico within the hurricane warning area within the next couple of hours, and then move inland over southern Mexico by later today. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Rick makes landfall in southern Mexico. After landfall, rapid weakening is expected, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday. Rick is a compact tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds only extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). A Mexican Navy observing station in Puerto Vicente in the state of Guerrero reported a wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) within the past couple of hours. The minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Rick can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2, WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue to spread onshore within portions of the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Tropical storm conditions will continue through early afternoon within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning areas. STORM SURGE: A storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near and to the east of where the center of Rick makes landfall in southern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. RAINFALL: Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Brown