Pacific Hurricane and Tropical Cyclone Track Updates

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion



000
WTPZ42 KNHC 231530 CCA
TCDEP2

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number   5...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Corrected to show dissipated at 27/1200Z

Rick continues to quickly become better organized on satellite 
images, with a growing Central Dense Overcast surrounded by a 
well-defined convective band wrapping almost completely around the 
circulation.  The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and 
SAB were 65 kt at around 1200 UTC and with the steady strengthening 
trend underway, the advisory intensity is set at 70 kt. 
Upper-outflow is prominent over all quadrants of the cyclone.   An 
Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to 
investigate Rick later today to provide additional intensity and 
structure information. 

Latest high-resolution visible satellite images indicate that the 
hurricane is moving a little faster toward the north-northwest, or 
at about 345/6 kt.  Rick is expected to move between 
north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the 
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. 
There continues to be significant spread in the track guidance 
models with the GFS being the easternmost and fastest, taking 
Rick on a mainly northward track.  The ECMWF is slower and farther 
west, and some other models are even slower and farther west over 
southwestern Mexico or just off the coast.  The official track 
forecast is, again, shifted somewhat to the east of the previous 
one and generally follows the HCCA consensus prediction.

As noted earlier, the atmospheric and oceanic environment for Rick 
appears to be very conducive for intensification during the next 
24-36 hours, with low shear, high mid-level moisture, and high 
oceanic heat content.  The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index 
continues to show a high probability of Rapid Intensification into 
Sunday, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, 
which is near the upper end of the guidance.  In 36 to 48 hours, 
increasing shear and drier air could cause the strengthening trend 
to end or even result in some weakening.  

Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued 
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings for portions of the southwest 
coast of Mexico.


Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  There is larger-than-normal
uncertainty in the track forecast of Rick, and the arrival time of
hazardous conditions within the watch area could change
significantly with future forecasts. Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to 
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early 
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday 
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical 
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  23/1500Z 14.7N 101.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  24/0000Z 15.4N 101.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  24/1200Z 16.0N 102.0W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/0000Z 16.8N 102.2W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W   90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
 60H  26/0000Z 19.6N 103.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 72H  26/1200Z 20.5N 103.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 96H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch



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