000 WTPZ42 KNHC 240239 TCDEP2 Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment. The eye seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central dense overcast has become less organized. There is an unusually large spread of satellite intensity estimates from 60-90 kt, and based on the satellite trends since the earlier reconnaissance aircraft left the storm, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt. Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying. Rick has slowed its forward motion a little and is now moving 340/4 kt. The hurricane is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to northward during the next couple of days as it moves through a weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico. There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is basically the same as the previous forecast through 36 h. After that, the new track is a little of the west of the previous track. On the forecast track, the center of Rick will make landfall along the coast of Mexico near or just after the 36 h point, then move farther inland over Mexico during the subsequent 24 h. Rick is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 18-24 h. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to begin again in the next few hours and for Rick to reach major hurricane strength in about 24 h. After that, some weakening could occur before landfall due to increasing shear and land interaction with the coastal mountains of Mexico. Rick should rapidly weaken after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over Mexico by 72 h. Before landfall, the new intensity forecast is at the upper edge of the intensity guidance. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast. 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.3N 102.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST 48H 26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 72H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven