Pacific Hurricane Feed

Hurricane Rick Forecast Discussion

WTPZ42 KNHC 240239

Hurricane Rick Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172021
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021

Rick appears to have stopped strengthening for the moment.  The eye 
seen earlier in visible imagery has disappeared, and recent 
microwave imagery shows that the eyewall located under the central 
dense overcast has become less organized.  There is an unusually 
large spread of satellite intensity estimates from 60-90 kt, and 
based on the satellite trends since the earlier reconnaissance 
aircraft left the storm, the initial intensity is held at 75 kt.  
Since Rick is in a low shear environment and has excellent cirrus 
outflow, it is unclear why the system has stopped intensifying.

Rick has slowed its forward motion a little and is now moving 340/4 
kt. The hurricane is expected to move slowly north-northwestward to 
northward during the next couple of days as it moves through a 
weakness in the subtropical ridge extending westward from Mexico.  
There has been little change in the forecast guidance since the last 
advisory, and the new forecast track is basically the same as the 
previous forecast through 36 h.  After that, the new track is a 
little of the west of the previous track.  On the forecast track, 
the center of Rick will make landfall along the coast of Mexico near 
or just after the 36 h point, then move farther inland over Mexico 
during the subsequent 24 h.

Rick is expected to remain in a favorable environment of light 
shear and warm sea surface temperatures for the next 18-24 h.  Based 
on this, the intensity forecast calls for rapid intensification to 
begin again in the next few hours and for Rick to reach major 
hurricane strength in about 24 h.  After that, some weakening could 
occur before landfall due to increasing shear and land interaction 
with the coastal mountains of Mexico.  Rick should rapidly weaken 
after landfall, and the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over 
Mexico by 72 h.  Before landfall, the new intensity forecast is at 
the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when
it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday,
and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force
winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de
Galeana to Punta San Telmo.  Residents in this area should
follow any advice given by local officials and check updates
to the forecast.

2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early
as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday
morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical
Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the
Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and
could persist through Monday night.  This rainfall will likely
produce flash flooding and mudslides.


INIT  24/0300Z 15.3N 102.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 15.9N 102.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 16.8N 102.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 18.0N 102.5W   85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST
 48H  26/0000Z 19.3N 103.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 60H  26/1200Z 20.8N 104.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND
 72H  27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Beven

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