000 WTPZ42 KNHC 232054 TCDEP2 Hurricane Rick Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP172021 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 23 2021 Rick continued to strengthen through the late morning, with a brief appearance of an eye in visible satellite images. Over the past few hours the eye has become less apparent, and the Central Dense Overcast (CDO) has become a bit elongated. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft investigated the hurricane late this afternoon and was able to provide beneficial data regarding Rick's structure and intensity. During the flight, the aircraft measured peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 80 kt (which reduce to 72 kt at the surface), and SFMR surface winds of 81 kt a little earlier in the flight. A blend of these values suggests the initial advisory intensity is 75 kt, which agrees well with unanimous 77-kt Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. The aircraft also confirmed that the core of Rick is compact, with tropical-storm-force winds extending only about 50 n mi from the center. However, earlier scatterometer data sampled winds to near tropical storm force in the large curved band that wraps around much of the hurricane's center at a distance of 100 to 150 n mi. Rick has jogged west-northwest over the past couple hours, but the 12 h motion is about 335/05 kt. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning. Rick is expected to resume a motion between north-northwest and north, through a weakness in the mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge, during the next couple of days. The track model guidance has come into better agreement, and the only notable change to the NHC forecast track was during the first 12 h to adjust for the recent left-of-track motion. The environment of sea-surface temperatures near 30 degrees C and very low shear should support a fast pace of strengthening over the next day or so. The only factor that could inhibit the pace of intensification is the presence of a dry moat between the CDO and outer band, and some of this dry air could get drawn into the core of Rick. However, based on the other favorable factors, the NHC intensity forecast calls for continued strengthening through Sunday morning. As the hurricane nears the coast in 36 h, dry air and increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear may weaken the cyclone. The latest NHC intensity forecast still calls for Rick to reach major hurricane intensity on Sunday, despite the recent pause in strengthening. This forecast remains on the high end of the guidance. Key Messages: 1. Rick is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the coast of southern Mexico by Sunday night or Monday, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area from Tecpan de Galeana to Punta San Telmo. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials and check updates to the forecast. 2. Rick is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico as early as Sunday from east of Tecpan de Galeana to Acapulco, and by Monday morning from west of Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 3. Heavy rains associated with Rick are expected to move into the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan starting later today, and could persist through Monday night. This rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 101.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.7N 102.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.5N 102.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 17.6N 102.3W 85 KT 100 MPH...NEAR COAST 48H 25/1800Z 18.9N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0600Z 20.3N 103.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch