Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT13 KNHC 080845
PWSAT3

HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  20                
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL182024               
0900 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE   
24.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H.                                       

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

GFMX 290N 870W 34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)

BURAS LA       34  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  2   2( 4)   4( 8)   2(10)   4(14)   2(16)   1(17)

HOUMA LA       34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  1   4( 5)   6(11)   4(15)  10(25)   3(28)   1(29)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

GFMX 280N 930W 34  1   3( 4)   5( 9)   6(15)   8(23)   2(25)   X(25)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)

GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   X(11)

MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)

MERIDA MX      34  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KELLY